Climate risk

Climate risk means a risk resulting from climate change and affecting natural and human systems and regions.

In the course of increasing global temperature and extreme weather phenomena the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has been founded by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) and the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) for a better understanding of climate change and meeting concerns of these observations. Its main aim is evaluating climate risks and exploring strategies for the prevention of these risks.

Climate risks

As per current projections of IPCC the following future effects have to be expected:

• Continuous increase of temperature
• Cumulation of extreme weather phenomena
• Bumper crops and crop failure
• Polar cap melting
• Changes of the planet’s ecology
• Spreading diseases
• Attenuation of the North Atlantic Drift

While affecting all economic sectors, the effect on single continents will differ. Beside these direct physical climate risks there are also indirect derived ones:

• Physical risks
• Regulational risks
• Litigational risks
• Competition risks
• Production risks
• Reputation risks

Physical risks

Direct risks of climate change are expected especially for branches, which strongly depend on natural resources like agriculture, fishing, forestry, health care, real estate and tourism. For example, storms and flooding damage buildings and infrastructure, whereas hot summers with less precipitation cause crop failure.

Regulational risks

The governmental endeavours to reduce climate costs have direct effects on economy. For example, the targets regarding emissions within the Kyoto-Protocol shall be realised by implementing emissions trading. By this instrument the value of emissions can be quantified monetarily, approximating the value of avoiding hazardous substances. This value shall be internalized by companies and considered in investment decisions. By considering emission costs the prices for i.e. energy and transport can increase and therefore change consumer demand. The insecurity of legislation leads to indefinite adjournation of projects and investments.

Litigational risks

Similar to the tobacco industry, industries producing excessive greenhouse gases are exposed to the risk of an increasing number of lawsuits, if damages can be traced back to emissions, i.e. for floodings, crop failure, etc.

Competition risks

If companies do not take measures to reduce climate risks they are competitively disadvantaged. This might lead to increasing production costs caused by obsolete technologies and therefore to decreasing profits.

Production risks

Production shortfalls can result from direct or indirect climate risks. I.e. hurricanes damaging oil production facilities can lead to a scarcity of oil and increasing prices. Also the price for energy will rise, because heatwaves cause water scarcity and therefore the supply for cooling water of power plants becomes short.

Reputation risks

Companies who are publicly criticized for their environmental policy or high emission rates, might lose customers, because of negative reputation. This risk is currently subordinate.

Climate opportunities

Besides climate risks also opportunities can derive from climate change for some branches and innovative companies, i.e. for the automobile and renewable energy sectors. Especially energy-intensive sectors can reduce energy costs by using more efficient technologies, which necessarily have to be developed in near future.

See also

• Climate change
• Effects of global warming
• Emission
• Greenhouse gas

External links

• The Stern Review – extensive analysis of the economical effects of climate change
• Mainstreaming of climate risks and opportunities in the financial sector - A research project with background information, issuing the effects of climate risks on the financial sector Ein Forschungsprojekt, das sich mit Auswirkungen der Klimarisiken auf den Finanzsektor beschäftigt mit weiteren Hintergrundinformationen.
• Carbon Disclosure Project – Disclosure of climate exposure and climate risks of the world’s largest companies
• Climate Risk Analysis
• Climate Risk Pty Ltd
• Climate Value-at-Risk

Sources

• Rüttinger, Lukas; Gerald Stang, Dan Smith, Dennis Tänzler, Janani Vivekananda, Alexander Carius, Oli Brown, Geoff Dabelko, Roger-Mark De Souza, Shreya Mitra, Katharina Nett, Meaghan Parker and Benjamin Pohl 2015: A New Climate for Peace – Taking Action on Climate and Fragility Risks. Berlin/London/Washington/Paris: adelphi, International Alert, The Wilson Center, EUISS. [1]
• Allianz Umweltstiftung – Lesemappe Klima. München 2007.
• Investor Network on Climate Risk [2] (INCR) & Ceres [3]: Global Framework for Climate Risk Disclosure - A statement of investor expectations for comprehensive corporate disclosure. October 2006
• The Center for Health and the Global Environment & Harvard Medical School: Climate Change Futures - Health, Ecological and Economic Dimensions, September 2006
• Onischka M. Klimawandel und Finanzmärkte. factorY. 02/2007.
• Carbon Disclosure Project - Carbon Finance and the Global Equity Markets, February 2003,
• Germanwatch. Frischer Wind bei Klimarisiken und –chancen. Juli 2005. [4]
• IPCC: Third Assessment, Climate Change 2001 - Report on Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability (Policymakers Summary)
• 4th Assessment Report (AR4) of the IPCC (2007) issuing climate changes
• Climate Risk Group of companies https://web.archive.org/web/20080718194119/http://www.climaterisk.net/
• Climate Risk Glossary http://www.climate-risk-analysis.com/glossary/